ICT Decoded · Standard deviation projections
What Are ICT Standard Deviation Projections?
By Steve H — reads every firm’s official rulebook, checks prices and codes daily, and maintains the Enigma Score · Methodology · Editorial policy · Last updated October 31, 2026
ICT concepts were created and are taught by Michael J. Huddleston, The Inner Circle Trader (X · YouTube). This lesson is FundedEnigma’s own summary, not affiliated with or endorsed by ICT.
In short: ICT standard deviation projections (also called ICT fib projections) measure the leg that made a market structure shift and project it beyond its end: -1, -2, -2.5 and -4 leg lengths. They are measuring marks that show how far price has travelled, not predictions of where it will go.
ICT Standard Deviation Projections Explained: Which Leg to Measure (and How Often It Works) · 7:07 · published October 31, 2026 · part of the ICT Concepts Decoded playlist
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The full video is embedded above this article: ICT Standard Deviation Projections Explained: Which Leg to Measure (and How Often It Works). This page is the written version, with every chart walked through step by step. Jump to any part of the video:
Key facts: standard deviation projections at a glance
| Term | What it is | Where to look |
|---|---|---|
| Standard deviation | One full length of the measured leg | Fibonacci tool set to 1, 0, -1, -2, -2.5, -4 |
| The leg | The leg that made a market structure shift, right after a run of stops at a marked level | From the swept extreme to the last candle that keeps closing in the new direction |
| -1 | One leg length beyond the end of the leg | The first mark |
| -2 to -2.5 | Two to two and a half leg lengths beyond the end | The area to watch for a pause, a pullback or a turn |
| -4 | Four leg lengths beyond the end | Treated as the full extension for that leg |
| Void | Price trades back through the swept extreme | Every mark from that leg stops counting; a new shift means a new leg |
Last verified 2026-10-31. All charts below are real historical CME NQ futures data, shown in New York time. "Yesterday" is the previous CME session, 6 PM to 5 PM New York time.
Here is the idea on one chart. On April 23, 2026, price ran above yesterday's high just after 11 AM, topped out at 11:33 and then shifted structure down. Measure that down leg and project it four times past its low: the mark lands at 26,682.00. At 1:46 PM the low of the day printed a quarter of a point below it. That is the rare day, as the data further down shows.
How do standard deviation projections work?
ICT (Michael J. Huddleston) uses the Fibonacci tool in reverse: instead of measuring a pullback inside a leg, you measure the leg itself and project it beyond its end. One full leg length is one standard deviation. Set the tool to 1, 0, -1, -2, -2.5 and -4: 1 sits at the start of the leg, 0 at its end, -1 is one more leg length beyond the end, -2 is two leg lengths, and so on.
Which leg do you measure for ICT projections?
Measure the leg that made a market structure shift, right after a run of stops at a level you marked, like yesterday's high or the London low. The leg starts at the swept extreme, the high or low that ran the stops, and ends where the displacement ends: the last candle that keeps closing in the new direction.
- Our anchor. Some traders anchor on the swing that ran into the extreme instead. In this lesson we measure the leg that made the shift, so the marks start where the turn was shown.
- Skip small legs. If the leg is smaller than an average 5-minute candle, the marks sit too close together to mean anything.
What do the -1, -2, -2.5 and -4 marks mean?
-1 is the first mark; -2 to -2.5 is the area to watch for a pause, a pullback or a turn; if price closes through that area with energy, -4 is treated as the full extension for that leg. They tell you how far price has travelled, in units of the leg that started it. They do not tell you it will get there.
How do projections pair with liquidity?
A mark means more when it lines up with something real: an old low, equal lows, a session high or a fair value gap. Then the liquidity is the target, and the projection is a second opinion on how far away it is.
When are standard deviation projections invalid?
The marks only count while the shift does: if price trades back through the swept extreme, the shift is wrong, and so is every mark measured from it. When a new shift forms, measure the new leg; the old marks are history. See MSS vs liquidity grab for why the swept extreme is where the idea is wrong.
What do standard deviation projections look like on real charts?
A bearish shift that ran all the way to -4, and a bullish shift that stalled between -2 and -2.5.
Example 1: a bearish projection, NQ, April 23, 2026
- Yesterday's high is 27,136.00. Price trades above it at 11:17.
- At 11:33 it tops at 27,155.75. That is the swept extreme.
- On the 5-minute chart, the 11:45 candle trades through the swing low at 27,108.25: a market structure shift.
- The 11:50 candle closes down too, and the next one does not, so the leg ends at its low, 27,061.00. A leg of 94.75 points.
- Project it: -1 is 26,966.25, -2 is 26,871.50 and -4 is 26,682.00.
- Price hits -1 at 1:09 PM, -2 at 1:19, passes -2.5 at 1:40 and at 1:46 makes the low of the day, 26,681.75, a quarter point below -4.
- The 11:33 high is never traded again that day, so the marks stayed valid the whole way down.
Example 2: a bullish projection that stalls, NQ, February 18, 2026
- At the New York open, price runs the London low at 24,802.00, down to 24,752.00.
- At 9:40 the 5-minute candle trades above the swing high at 24,848.25: a market structure shift. The next candle closes down, so the leg ends at that candle's high, 24,868.75.
- A leg of 116.75 points: -1 is 24,985.50 and -2 is 25,102.25.
- Price reaches -1 at 10:03 and -2 at 11:05. Then it stalls: the high of the day, 25,128.25, prints at 12:07, inside the -2 to -2.5 area.
- -2.5 is not reached that day. By 3:16 PM price is back at 24,856.00, giving back most of the move.
Are ICT standard deviation projections accurate?
Not as targets. We measured 563 of these shifts on NQ futures in the New York morning (8:30 AM to 1 PM), from June 2024 to September 2026. Before the shift was cancelled, and by 4 PM, -1 was reached about one time in five, -2 under one time in ten and -4 under two times in a hundred.
- Most shifts do not last the day. About three in five were cancelled the same day: price traded back through the swept extreme.
- Lining up with liquidity did not change the odds. A mark at a session or daily high or low was reached about as often as one that was not.
- A ruler, not a target list. The first example on this page is the rare day; the second is closer to normal.
How do you use standard deviation projections in your own charting?
Use them as a ruler for how far a move has travelled, and let liquidity, not the marks, be the target.
- Measure only the leg that made the shift. A projection from a random swing measures nothing.
- Watch -2 to -2.5. It is the area to watch for a pause or a turn, as in the second example.
- Respect the swept extreme. Back through it, every mark from that leg is void.
- Expect most marks to go unreached. On our data, even -1 was reached only about one time in five.
More concepts in the series are on the ICT Concepts Decoded hub. If you trade futures with a prop firm, you can look up a firm's rules on the challenges page or set two firms side by side on the compare page.
Frequently asked questions
Is a standard deviation projection the same as a Fibonacci extension?
It uses the same tool, but the levels and the leg are specific: 1, 0, -1, -2, -2.5 and -4, measured on the leg that made a market structure shift.
Why are the levels negative?
Because 1 sits at the start of the leg and 0 at its end, every mark beyond the end of the leg reads as a negative number on the tool.
Can you use projections on any timeframe?
Yes. The examples on this page use the 5-minute chart; the same measurement works on a larger leg on a bigger chart.
What if the leg is very large?
Then -2 and beyond are a long way off, and on most days they are not reached; on our data even -1 was reached only about one time in five.
Is a projection a trade signal?
No. It is a way to measure a move, not an entry or a target on its own. This page does not give trade signals.
Sources
- Concept: standard deviation projections as taught by ICT (The Inner Circle Trader, Michael J. Huddleston), who originated the idea. The explanation, examples and charts on this page are our own.
- Data: every chart and the 563-shift count are real historical CME Nasdaq-100 E-mini (NQ) futures data, shown in New York time.
- Video: ICT Standard Deviation Projections Explained: Which Leg to Measure (and How Often It Works), FundedEnigma.
Last verified: 2026-10-31. Written by Steve H.
Disclaimer: This page is for education only and is not financial advice. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss. Past price behaviour does not guarantee future results.
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