Pre-Weekly-Open Recap (21 Sep 2026): Fed at 4%, Saudi Strikes, the Xi–Trump Summit — Levels for NQ, ES, Gold, Crude, FX and Crypto

The calendar this week (all times ET)

Monday 21: Fed's Goolsbee 6:30, ECB's Lagarde 11:00 (again Tuesday 7:00), BoC's Macklem 11:05. UN General Assembly week opens in New York — Trump said Sunday he is in "deciding mode" on Iran and is open to meeting Iran's president at the UN, so crude, gold and the indices carry headline risk all week. Tradeify's Premier Trading League opens.

Tuesday 22: ADP weekly 8:15, Richmond Fed 10:00, Fed's Williams 10:05, Jefferson 10:20, Barkin 13:00, API 16:30. October WTI expires at 14:30 — the crude chart rolls to November, and October settled about $4 over November (steep backwardation). Apex's 90% sale and Bulenox's promo end.

Wednesday 23: Eurozone and UK flash PMIs 3:15–4:30; US flash PMIs 9:45 (manufacturing f 53.4 p 53.2, services f 56.0 p 56.8) — the one US growth print of the week; Fed's Barr 10:05; EIA crude 10:30 (p −0.6M) with the Saudi pipeline still down.

Thursday 24: the Xi–Trump summit in Washington. Tariff cuts on US energy and agricultural goods are on the table, the Chinese expect a purchase package of around $30 billion, and the US is holding new tariffs until after the meeting — binary for NQ, ES, DXY and crude. Also: jobless claims 8:30 (f 201K p 196K), current account, new home sales 10:00 (f 619K), Fed's Hammack 8:50 and Paulson 10:10, Williams 4:10.

Friday 25: BoE's Bailey 5:15 (the only High flag of the week — GBP/USD), durable goods 8:30 (f −0.3%, core +0.5%), UoM sentiment revised 10:00 (f 47.5) with inflation expectations (p 4.6%), Fed's Hammack 14:00.

Beyond this week: PCE on 30 September, quarter-end rebalancing, and the 28 October FOMC (about 55% priced for another hike).

US Dollar Index · 100.215 · week +1.1%

Opened the week at 99.10, ran to 100.564 Friday morning on the hawkish hike and closed at 100.215 — back above the 100 handle. September range 98.60–100.56; the prior week's high at 99.37 is now support.

Levels: above — 100.564 (weekly and September high), then the round 101. Below — 100.00 pivot, 99.37, 99.07 (weekly low). This week: above 100 the dollar keeps pressing EUR and GBP into Thursday's summit; a daily close back under 100 says the hike is priced and the trade is over.

Nasdaq 100 futures (Dec) · 29,955 · week +2.3%

Opened the week at 29,294, sold to 29,053 on Tuesday ahead of the Fed, then rallied every day to close on the highs at 29,955 — a full V. The weekly high 29,993.25 is still a lower high under the September high of 30,060.75 (set the week before), and the summer high sits near 31,400.

Levels: above — 29,993 → 30,060.75 (September high) → 30,500 → the summer high. Below — 29,720 (Thursday's close) → 29,336.50 (prior-week low) → 29,053 (weekly low). This week: acceptance above 30,060 opens the run at the summer high into the summit; a close back under 29,720 turns the V into a failed breakout and 29,336 becomes the draw.

S&P 500 futures (Dec) · 7,725 · week +0.6%

Opened 7,677, low 7,575 Tuesday, closed 7,725 above the prior-day high — the same V as the Nasdaq with less energy. The record is the September high at 7,834.25; last week's 7,739.25 high is well under it. Breadth is thin: fewer than one in five S&P names is above its 20-day average.

Levels: above — 7,739.25 → 7,796.25 (prior-week high) → 7,834.25 (record). Below — 7,702 (Thursday's close) → 7,653.25 (prior-week low) → 7,575 (weekly low). This week: above 7,796 the S&P can retest the record into the summit; below 7,653 the weekly low is the target.

Gold · 4,415.9 · week +0.9%

Opened 4,375, sold to a one-month low 4,273.3 on Tuesday as oil, 5% yields and the hike were priced, then recovered every dollar once the hike was delivered, printing 4,439.8 on Friday. September range 4,273–4,558.5; prior week 4,488.8 / 4,333.

Levels: above — 4,439.8 → 4,488.8 → 4,558.5 (September high). Below — 4,380 (Thursday's close) → 4,333 → 4,273 (the line in the sand). This week: the 10-year is the switch — above 5% caps gold, a slip back under 5% and gold retests 4,488; Saturday's strikes on Riyadh add a haven bid at the reopen.

Crude oil (WTI, November) · 95.47 · week −2.3%

Opened 97.72, spiked to 102.22 on the Saudi East-West pipeline shutdown, then fell three straight sessions as satellite data showed the Saudis moving 2.8M bpd through Hormuz. Keep the bigger picture: September opened at 81.78, so crude is still up 17% on the month. October expires Tuesday afternoon about $4 over November — steep backwardation.

Levels (November): above — 96.56 (Thursday's close) → 98.01 (Friday high) → 100 handle → 102.22 (weekly high). Below — 94.57 (weekly low) → 90.9 → 86.34 (prior-week low). This week: headlines beat charts. The pipeline is still down and the Houthis hit Riyadh and Yanbu on Saturday, so a gap up at the 6 PM reopen is the base case; a failure back under 94.57 says the market has decided supply is flowing.

EUR/USD · 1.14856 · week −0.9% and GBP/USD · 1.33923 · week −0.9%

EUR/USD opened 1.15953, made its high Monday and fell all week to 1.14540 Friday, closing on the September low. Above — 1.14917 → 1.1569 (prior-week low, first resistance) → 1.16541 (September high). Below — 1.14540 → 1.1400. Lagarde speaks Monday and Tuesday, EU PMIs Wednesday: holding 1.1454 with the dollar back under 100 is the bounce; losing it while the dollar breaks 100.56 opens 1.14.

GBP/USD opened 1.35168, high 1.35284 Monday, low 1.33355 Friday morning (the September low), then the strongest reversal in FX to close 1.33923. Above — 1.33981 (Friday high) → 1.34648 (prior-week low) → 1.35284 → 1.35679 (September high). Below — 1.33355 → 1.3300. UK PMIs Wednesday, Bailey Friday: Friday's reversal off 1.3336 is the tell — above 1.3465 it is a failed breakdown; a close under 1.3336 targets 1.33.

Bitcoin · 81,079 · week +5.6% and Ether · 2,631 · week +6.3%

Bitcoin opened 76,800, made its low with everything else Tuesday at 74,887, then ripped Thursday–Friday on ETF inflows ($433M on Friday alone) to 81,925 and printed 82K over the weekend. Above — 81,925 → 82,283 (September high) → the 83–86K resistance band. Below — 80,085 (Friday low) → 80,000 pivot → 76,030 → 74,887. Crypto has already voted risk-on: above 82,283 the 83–86K band is the target; a loss of 80,000 with the summit disappointing sends it back to 76,000.

Ether opened 2,475.86, low 2,356.82 Tuesday, closed 2,630.85 pressing the September high 2,667.53. Above — 2,650 → 2,667.53 → 2,750. Below — 2,563.6 (Friday low) → 2,477 (weekly open) → 2,404 → 2,356.8. A daily close above 2,667 is the first higher high since the summer; back under 2,564 it is inside the range with 2,477 next.

Weekend news that can move the 6 PM open

Saturday: the Houthis fired ballistic missiles and drones at Riyadh, hitting the Aramco fuel depot at the airport and the Yanbu oil facilities 700 miles to the south; Saudi Arabia says it intercepted the missile. The East-West pipeline is still offline and Aramco has cut October crude supplies to some European and Indian refiners. Sunday: Iran sent its conditions for reopening Hormuz through mediators (the war ends on all fronts, funds unfrozen, blockade lifted); the US Navy says it has escorted a billion barrels through the Gulf with crude traffic at six-month highs. Trump told Fox he is in "deciding mode" on Iran — deal, sanctions or strikes — and is open to meeting Pezeshkian at the UN; the CIA director was in Cairo and the State Department warned of escalation risk.

US–China: tariff cuts on US energy and farm goods are being negotiated ahead of Thursday and new tariffs are on hold until after the meeting. Base case at 6 PM: crude and gold gap up, the indices open near Friday's close and trade the dollar.

Prop-firm and platform updates

Tradeify — Premier Trading League starts Monday 21 September. Free to enter, no qualifier. Open 1 runs 21 Sep – 19 Oct: eight one-v-one matches every Tuesday and Thursday, each on a fresh $50K simulated account, ES/NQ/GC/CL only, one contract or ten micros; +3 for a win, +1 for a draw, +1 per $500 of profit (capped), −1 per $500 of losses (uncapped); the bottom half is cut after match 4. $300K per Open, $1M in total, the top four of each Open go to the World Finale in Fort Lauderdale. Register at tradeify.co/ptl. Tradeify also launched a Rewards Center (missions → Gems + XP), brought the $300K Select back at $349 one-time, and is running 40% off any account through 30 September — priced after the discount on the Tradeify page.

Lucid — the "$2 Million Competition Based On Nothing In Particular". Every day at the close a Mysteryboard criterion is revealed and prizes go to whoever fits it: highest PnL one day, "closest PnL to $420" another, 50 winners on the 16th. Anyone trading a Lucid account is in; reveals happen in Lucid's Discord town hall around 5:30 PM ET and on X @TradingLucid, with YouTube livestreams. Every Lucid plan is 40–50% off with code FE — Lucid Trading.

Apex: up to 90% off with code FE ends Tuesday 22 September; Bulenox's promotion ends the same day. NinjaTrader is separately pushing a $14.98 Apex 25K evaluation for new Apex customers through its own link (terms apply). Apex Trader Funding.

TradingView — The Leap (September, by AMP Futures): 100,768 traders in, a $50K prize pool plus 250 plan prizes, free paper-futures contest, ends 30 September at tradingview.com/the-leap.

Nexgen ProTrader Funding: our Rapid, Instant and both-plans videos are up. Nexgen runs weekly offers — 90% off evaluations with code FE (repeats on every monthly renewal), free resets on evaluation accounts, and 40–50% off activations and Instant accounts with code FE40 — Nexgen. Also this week: FundedSeat 45% off with no code, MyFundedFutures 40% off (50% for first-time customers), FundedNext Futures with code FE (Flex 48%, Rapid up to 50%). Every price after the code is live on the home page, updated daily.

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